← 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.0% | +0.8 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |