← 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.4%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1412
· median 1412
· range 1412–1412
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1257
Q3 1414
1545
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
