← Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1208
Q3 1324
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 28.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 21.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
