← Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1210
· median 1210
· range 1207–1214
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1208
Q3 1324
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 28.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 21.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
