Fire RileTier 1
at ACMETCG Store Championship
decks
7
(43.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
14-11-0
overall winrate
56.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
53.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1359
· median 1340
· range 1164–1563
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1213
Q3 1365
1563
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.5% | -6.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.4% | -8.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Hasty Messenger, Vermilion Decree. Losers more often ran: Safeguard Amulet, Nullifying Lantern, Stalwart Shieldmate.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 98 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 78 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.83 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.67 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.67 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |