Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at ACMETCG Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1280
· median 1280
· range 1280–1280
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1213
Q3 1365
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
