← Home-run Store Championships
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Home-run Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Tristan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |