← Store Championship @ Hobby Outpost
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship @ Hobby Outpost
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-3-0
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.0%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
58.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1334–1469
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1228
Q3 1383
1469
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 22.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
