← Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ameliorating Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lu Bu, Indomitable Titan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Accord | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Vital Demise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suspicious Concoction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |