← GGCP Distorted Reflections Store Championship - 7th September
Fire RileTier 2
at GGCP Distorted Reflections Store Championship - 7th September
decks
6
(54.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
8-10-1
overall winrate
44.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1400
· median 1384
· range 1284–1563
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1276
Q3 1421
1563
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 18.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 54.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 18.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 53.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.6% | -12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.0% | -10.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple, Vermilion Decree, Searing Truth. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Dungeon Guide.
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Searing Truth
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fabled Ruby Fatestone
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heated Vengeance
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 114 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 94 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |