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Fire RileTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Champs
decks
4
(50.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-4-0
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.5%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1304
· median 1296
· range 1220–1405
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1142
Q1 1217
Q3 1299
1405
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fragmented Spirit of Fire, Reduce to Ash, Ghosts of Pendragon. Losers more often ran: Liminal Guide.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Purge in Flames
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Liminal Guide
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 96 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 76 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vainglory Retribution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |