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Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Champs
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.9%
avg ELO +8.9 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1207
· median 1207
· range 1207–1207
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1142
Q1 1217
Q3 1299
1405
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 50.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
