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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Storechamps
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.7%
avg ELO -10.7 per match
expected value
43.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1223–1547
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1202
Q3 1405
1552
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
