← Grand Archive - Constructed - Storechamps
Fire RileTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Storechamps
decks
5
(31.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
13-6-1
overall winrate
67.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.7%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
58.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1408
· range 1223–1547
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1202
Q3 1405
1552
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.4% | +13.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.7% | +8.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flame Sweep, Clarent, Reimagined, Lorraine, Blademaster. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Fluffy Shopkeep, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Clarent, Reimagined
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Clarent, Sword of Peace
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 91 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 80 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |