← The Armoury Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The Armoury Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 4 23.5% 19 68.4% 61.0% 54.7% 53.7% 1294
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 11.8% 12 58.3% 49.1% 53.5% 50.2% 1348 ↑ top
3 Fire Rile 4 23.5% 20 55.0% 48.8% 53.0% 51.3% 1378 ↑ top
4 Water Fractal 1 5.9% 8 62.5% 64.9% 52.7% 56.3% 1358 ↑ top
5 Fire Oblation 1 5.9% 6 50.0% 62.9% 52.3% 57.2% 1221
6 Fire Aggro 1 5.9% 6 66.7% 60.2% 50.0% 51.6% 1282
7 Wind Allies 1 5.9% 5 50.0% 51.6% 46.1% 48.5% 1153 ↓ low
8 Water Exia Jin 1 5.9% 4 25.0% 44.6% 45.0% 46.9% 1084 ↓ low
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.9% 6 33.3% 42.7% 44.6% 46.7% 1240
10 Water Crux Mage 2 11.8% 8 18.8% 30.3% 44.0% 44.7% 1237
11 Fire Exia 2 11.8% 10 20.0% 30.0% 39.8% 41.2% 1149 ↓ low