Fire RileTier 1
at STORE CHAMPS
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -17.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 85 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 85 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |