Horse and TaxesTier 2
at STORE CHAMPS
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.6%
avg ELO -8.9 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1467
· median 1467
· range 1467–1467
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1040
Q1 1211
Q3 1347
1563
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
