← JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

Fire AggroTier 1

at JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

decks
2 (8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9 5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.0% avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
53.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1448 · median 1448 · range 1410–1485 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
915 Q1 1216 Q3 1412 1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 70.8% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 61.6% +6.7
Fire Suzaku 25.0% 0
Fire Crux Mage 16.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.6% -6.2
Horse and Taxes 16.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.3% +22.9
Wind Seiryuu 8.3% 0
Fire Slimes 4.2% 0
Fire Suited 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.2
Fire Umbra Ranger 4.2% 0
Water Genbu 4.2% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Rile the Abyss -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +1.00 1 0 0
Planted Explosive +1.00 1 0 0
Embercrypt Burn +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Soulknife +1.00 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows -1.00 0 1 0
Hone by Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Mercenary's Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Intensified Pyre +1.00 1 0 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Creative Shock -1.00 0 1 0
Flame Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Bowman +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Reimagined -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Inert Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Peppered Chef +1.00 1 0 0
Vengeful Paramour -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Incinerated Templar -1.00 0 1 0
Dazzling Courtesan +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Momentum -1.00 0 1 0
Sword Saint's Vow -1.00 0 1 0
The Looking Glass -1.00 0 1 0
Corhazi Courier +1.00 1 0 0
Incapacitate +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -1.00 0 1 0
Poisoned Dagger +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Zander, Prepared Scout +1.00 1 0 0
March Hare, Mottled Host +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/32563/archetypes/Fire Aggro