← JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
4
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
17-12-3
overall winrate
57.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1395
· median 1403
· range 1209–1563
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1216
Q3 1412
1563
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 70.8% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.1% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 25.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 39.8% | -5.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 16.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.3% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
