EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 捷泰玩具DTR錦標賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 11.1% | 7 | 92.9% | 74.2% | 62.9% | 61.2% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Neos | 1 | 11.1% | 8 | 62.5% | 45.1% | 55.9% | 48.0% | 1312 | — |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 5 | 55.6% | 15 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 51.8% | 52.0% | 1348 | — |
| 4 | Fire Suited | 2 | 22.2% | 9 | 44.4% | 54.9% | 48.2% | 52.7% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 46.7% | 44.6% | 1450 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 40.5% | 46.1% | 43.9% | 1368 | — |
| 7 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1284 | — |