Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
decks
5
(55.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-7-0
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1439
· median 1469
· range 1281–1513
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1150
Q1 1183
Q3 1469
1513
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 33.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.8% | +22.8 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.3% | -6.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Dungeon Guide, Backup Charger, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Demolition, Blazing Bowman, Vengeful Paramour.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Chalice of Blood
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Demolition
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Vengeful Paramour
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Vermilion Decree
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 102 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 82 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demolition | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enrage | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |