Fire SuzakuTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 55.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Broken Promises | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |