Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1150
· range 1150–1150
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1150
Q1 1183
Q3 1469
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 55.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 33.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
