EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Sparks Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 66.8% | 60.0% | 56.4% | 1550 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 56.0% | 58.1% | 1385 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.1% | 55.0% | 55.2% | 1271 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.4% | 53.3% | 50.7% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 52.0% | 54.0% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 52.0% | 54.0% | 1445 | — |
| 7 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 43.0% | 47.5% | 47.2% | 1423 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.6% | 47.5% | 45.8% | 1374 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.4% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 18.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 24.1% | 40.0% | 39.7% | 1424 | — |