EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RiRiCO 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.4% | 54.7% | 51.5% | 1236 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 10 | 45.5% | 54 | 53.7% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 1338 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 52.0% | 57.7% | 1137 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 11 | 63.6% | 49.3% | 51.5% | 46.3% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.7% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 1285 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 42.9% | 39.1% | 51.1% | 48.4% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.5% | 12 | 58.3% | 57.9% | 51.1% | 53.3% | 1315 | — |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 18.2% | 30 | 51.7% | 42.0% | 50.9% | 45.3% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 13.6% | 23 | 54.3% | 66.7% | 50.7% | 59.9% | 1278 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 48.3% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 49.4% | 52.5% | 1254 | — |
| 12 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.5% | 10 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 49.0% | 53.3% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 42.9% | 56.3% | 48.9% | 54.0% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 16 | 43.8% | 39.1% | 44.6% | 42.4% | 1347 | — |
| 15 | Water Neos | 2 | 9.1% | 13 | 46.2% | 40.3% | 43.1% | 41.0% | 1294 | — |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 0.0% | 32.7% | 36.3% | 41.1% | 1002 | ↓ low |