← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
7
(53.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-9-1
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1354
· range 1202–1516
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1202
Q1 1251
Q3 1406
1516
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 23.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.2% | -12.7 |
| Fire Suited | 15.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fragmented Spirit of Fire, Ghosts of Pendragon, Merlin, Kingslayer. Losers more often ran: Portentous Tanggu, Resolute Stand, Chalice of Blood.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Merlin, Memory Thief
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
The Majestic Spirit
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Portentous Tanggu
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Chalice of Blood
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 109 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 89 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shackled Theurgist | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Slime Sovereign | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |