← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire SuitedTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-5-3
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
44.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1313–1458
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1202
Q1 1251
Q3 1406
1516
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.4% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 23.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
