Fire RileTier 2
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Suited | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.7% | -5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 48.1% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.1% | -15.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Obsequious Blow, Heavy Swing, Ciel, Mirage's Grave. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Incapacitate.
Show all 72 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Obsequious Blow | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |