Water AlliesTier 2
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1161
Q1 1233
Q3 1352
1408
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 38.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
