EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 68.9% | 63.2% | 63.5% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 63.0% | 54.8% | 55.6% | 1239 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 33.3% | 11 | 54.5% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 50.5% | 1278 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suited | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.2% | 51.4% | 52.5% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.9% | 46.7% | 49.4% | 1207 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 28.2% | 43.9% | 43.2% | 1250 | — |
| 7 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 26.8% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1178 | ↓ low |