EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 100.0% | 73.9% | 65.3% | 63.3% | 1314 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 65.8% | 54.3% | 54.2% | 1175 | — |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 51.7% | 51.4% | 1173 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 22.2% | 8 | 56.2% | 51.2% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 1225 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.9% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 39.8% | 42.5% | 44.9% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.6% | 41.7% | 43.7% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1155 | — |