← Manta Trading Store Championship
Fire RileTier 2
at Manta Trading Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kingdom's Divide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |