← SGCCC Distorted Reflections season Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at SGCCC Distorted Reflections season Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-0-2
overall winrate
87.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
59.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1384–1384
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1181
Q3 1317
1433
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
