← Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive DTR Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 72.6% | 58.0% | 59.4% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | 50.9% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 56.9% | 54.0% | 53.5% | 1235 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.9% | 52.0% | 48.9% | 1250 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.9% | 51.1% | 53.2% | 1220 | — |
| 6 | Fire Tera Kongming | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.9% | 48.6% | 49.7% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 37.6% | 48.0% | 43.1% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.1% | 46.0% | 47.2% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 37.3% | 45.0% | 44.9% | 1262 | — |
| 12 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.3% | 44.0% | 47.6% | 1436 | ↑ top |