← Grand Archive DTR Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive DTR Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 7.1% 4 87.5% 72.6% 58.0% 59.4% 1183 ↓ low
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 7.1% 4 75.0% 50.0% 56.0% 50.9% 1517 ↑ top
3 Wind Allies 1 7.1% 4 62.5% 56.9% 54.0% 53.5% 1235
4 Fire Crux Mage 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 42.9% 52.0% 48.9% 1250
5 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 14.3% 6 66.7% 65.9% 51.1% 53.2% 1220
6 Fire Tera Kongming 1 7.1% 4 37.5% 47.8% 50.0% 51.2% 1141 ↓ low
7 Water Aetherwing 2 14.3% 6 33.3% 44.9% 48.6% 49.7% 1125 ↓ low
8 Fire Aggro 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 37.6% 48.0% 43.1% 1597 ↑ top
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 46.0% 46.7% 44.1% 1333 ↑ top
10 Wind Umbra Ciel 1 7.1% 4 37.5% 47.1% 46.0% 47.2% 1195 ↓ low
11 Water Fractal 1 7.1% 4 25.0% 37.3% 45.0% 44.9% 1262
12 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 7.1% 4 25.0% 48.3% 44.0% 47.6% 1436 ↑ top