← Strictly Broken TCG Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Strictly Broken TCG Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 5.9% 8 81.2% 71.8% 56.9% 57.6% 1219
2 Fire Suzaku 1 5.9% 7 71.4% 62.2% 55.0% 54.7% 1211
3 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.9% 6 66.7% 56.6% 54.5% 53.4% 1272 ↑ top
4 Wind Cats 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 54.0% 54.3% 53.5% 1250 ↑ top
5 Fire Neos Tonoris 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 54.6% 53.3% 53.3% 1158 ↓ low
6 Water Allies 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 55.9% 53.3% 53.5% 1178 ↓ low
7 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 55.9% 53.3% 53.5% 1178 ↓ low
8 Fire Crux Mage 2 11.8% 11 50.0% 45.8% 51.1% 49.7% 1219
9 Fire Exia 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 43.9% 50.0% 49.7% 1209
10 Fire Suited 1 5.9% 6 50.0% 49.6% 50.0% 49.9% 1226
11 Water Umbra Guardian 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 60.9% 50.0% 52.4% 1207
12 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.9% 4 50.0% 54.9% 48.0% 50.2% 1239 ↑ top
13 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 11.8% 11 27.3% 33.9% 44.5% 44.8% 1241 ↑ top
14 Water Genbu 1 5.9% 5 20.0% 34.6% 44.0% 44.5% 1170 ↓ low
15 Wind Byakko 1 5.9% 2 0.0% 36.5% 40.0% 41.9% 1143 ↓ low
16 Wind Shadowstrike 1 5.9% 4 0.0% 25.1% 40.0% 40.0% 1136 ↓ low