← CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
decks
3
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
11-10-3
overall winrate
52.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1374
· range 1203–1472
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1144
Q3 1416
1532
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.3% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 58.2% | +4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
