← CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
Water AlliesTier 1
at CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
15-7-0
overall winrate
68.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.7%
avg ELO +9.4 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1240
· range 1201–1280
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1144
Q3 1416
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.3% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 70.5% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.5% | +10.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
