← CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1131–1131
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1144
Q3 1416
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
