← Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 70.8% | 65.1% | 61.5% | 59.3% | 1380 | — |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 13.6% | 23 | 69.6% | 54.4% | 61.3% | 53.7% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 56.9% | 59.3% | 59.4% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 64.3% | 46.1% | 55.0% | 47.7% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.3% | 55.0% | 50.5% | 1293 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.5% | 8 | 68.8% | 72.4% | 54.8% | 60.1% | 1264 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 9 | 61.1% | 51.6% | 53.8% | 50.3% | 1352 | — |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 62.2% | 50.3% | 55.0% | 1330 | — |
| 9 | Fire Rile | 12 | 54.5% | 50 | 48.0% | 51.5% | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1388 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.4% | 44.7% | 44.6% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 41.7% | 49.8% | 43.0% | 46.6% | 1347 | — |
| 12 | Rile | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 39.1% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 24.0% | 33.8% | 30.6% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Suited | 2 | 9.1% | 11 | 9.1% | 26.2% | 32.5% | 36.3% | 1133 | ↓ low |