← Wolfspider Games & Entertainment DTR Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Wolfspider Games & Entertainment DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
8-2-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.2%
avg ELO +9.1 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1241
· median 1241
· range 1211–1270
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1152
Q3 1237
1348
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Arisanna | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Neos | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
