← Wolfspider Games & Entertainment DTR Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Wolfspider Games & Entertainment DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.9%
avg ELO -9.6 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1229–1229
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1152
Q3 1237
1348
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
