← Month-ender for August with PRs

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Month-ender for August with PRs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Hybrid 1 7.7% 4 87.5% 52.4% 59.3% 51.2% 1400 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 3 23.1% 13 69.2% 51.3% 57.8% 50.8% 1348 ↑ top
3 Wind Astra Cleric 1 7.7% 5 70.0% 51.4% 54.0% 50.6% 1193 ↓ low
4 Fire Rile 2 15.4% 8 62.5% 51.3% 52.2% 50.3% 1288
5 Wind Allies 3 23.1% 12 50.0% 51.1% 47.1% 50.0% 1265
6 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 7.7% 2 50.0% 49.6% 45.0% 48.7% 1207 ↓ low
7 Fire Exia 1 7.7% 4 37.5% 49.5% 43.8% 49.2% 1175 ↓ low
8 Water Tera Mage 1 7.7% 5 10.0% 47.1% 43.0% 49.3% 1169 ↓ low
9 Fire Aggro 1 7.7% 4 0.0% 47.1% 40.0% 48.8% 1198 ↓ low
10 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 45.6% 40.0% 47.9% 1289