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Fire RileTier 1
at Kayfabe - Store Championship - DTR
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse and Taxes | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 69.3% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.5% | -6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 11.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.5% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Surreptitious Scheme, Fragmented Spirit of Fire, Ghosts of Pendragon. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Liminal Guide, Sovereign Sanctuary.
Show all 78 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |