EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR BrandX StoreChamp.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Rile | 6 | 40.0% | 16 | 68.8% | 61.6% | 59.0% | 56.5% | 1357 | — |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 62.5% | 51.7% | 48.9% | 46.5% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 41.8% | 48.9% | 44.6% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 53.1% | 46.7% | 53.0% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 30.9% | 46.5% | 41.4% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Neos | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | 46.3% | 1355 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 37.1% | 43.3% | 41.5% | 1351 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.3% | 42.2% | 45.6% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 20.0% | 9 | 50.0% | 61.1% | 40.9% | 47.3% | 1278 | ↓ low |