← Hobibear DTR Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobibear DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Mage 2 13.3% 5 90.0% 66.2% 59.2% 56.8% 1466 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 1 6.7% 4 62.5% 48.0% 54.3% 50.3% 1461 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 57.6% 53.3% 52.0% 1472 ↑ top
4 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 13.3% 8 62.5% 50.6% 52.5% 49.7% 1362
5 Water Fractal 2 13.3% 7 50.0% 52.4% 51.2% 52.4% 1221 ↓ low
6 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 52.4% 50.0% 51.7% 1267
7 Fire Aggro 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 60.0% 48.6% 53.0% 1298
8 Slimes 2 13.3% 8 37.5% 41.8% 46.5% 47.0% 1256
9 Wind Shadowstrike 1 6.7% 4 37.5% 50.1% 45.8% 50.1% 1185 ↓ low
10 Water Tera Kongming 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 33.8% 40.0% 41.7% 1310
11 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 33.9% 40.0% 42.6% 999 ↓ low