← Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/11/2025
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/11/2025
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 39.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |