← Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/11/2025
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/11/2025
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
44.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1372–1388
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1210
Q3 1398
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 39.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
