← Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/25/2025
Water NeosTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/25/2025
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1457
· range 1259–1656
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1164
Q1 1210
Q3 1418
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
