← Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/25/2025
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/25/2025
decks
3
(7.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-4-2
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1200
· range 1179–1276
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1164
Q1 1210
Q3 1418
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
