Water Astra RangerTier 2
at RHS DTR Storechamp
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refluxal Ribbon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guided Starlight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaving Manastream | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Eclipse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meteoric Volley | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sidereal Spellshot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |